Why Netanyahu Is Finally Engaging in a Ceasefire and Prisoner Exchange Deal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently resisted calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, insisting on an impossible military defeat of Hamas.

However, recent developments indicate a shift in his position. Reports suggest Netanyahu is now engaged in a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement with Palestinian resistance groups. What led to this reversal? Analysts point to mounting US pressure, spearheaded by President-elect Donald Trump, and Israel’s military defeat on the battlefield.

Trump’s Role in Forcing Netanyahu’s Hand

Two political analysts told Al Jazeera that Trump has been rallying the Israeli public against Netanyahu, compelling him to pursue a ceasefire deal. Trump reportedly intervened directly in the negotiations, which have been ongoing for weeks. Israeli media sources, including Channel 13 and Walla, confirmed Trump’s personal involvement, with his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, delivering messages to both Qatari and Israeli officials. Witkoff has emphasized Trump’s desire to see an agreement finalized within days.

Netanyahu has responded by intensifying efforts to finalize the deal. His office recently announced the deployment of top Israeli officials—including the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet—to Doha for further talks. This high-level involvement signals the seriousness of the negotiations.

Shifting Narratives Under US Pressure
Netanyahu’s rhetoric has also softened. Initially, he vowed not to end the genocide until Hamas was eliminated. Now, he describes a ceasefire and exchange deal as “necessary,” reflecting significant US influence.

Dr. Ahmed Al-Hila, a political analyst, argues that Trump’s firm stance has left Netanyahu with little choice. “No major power will allow its interests or those of its key ally to be dictated by one leader’s personal agenda,” Al-Hila noted. He believes Netanyahu’s resistance to Trump’s demands could jeopardize Israel’s broader strategic goals, including its relationship with Saudi Arabia and efforts to counter Iran.

Ehab Jabbarin, an expert on Israeli affairs, concurs, adding that Trump’s involvement marks a stark contrast to outgoing President Joe Biden, who exerted minimal pressure on Israel. Jabbarin suggests Washington has leveraged its influence to push Netanyahu toward a deal, with potential incentives—or consequences—linked to US support.

Military Failures Amplify Domestic and International Pressure

Israel’s military defeats in Gaza have further weakened Netanyahu’s position. Despite claiming progress in eliminating Hamas, Israeli forces have faced significant setbacks, particularly in northern Gaza.

Palestinian resistance groups, headed by Hamas, have inflicted heavy casualties, undermining Israel’s narrative of control.
One turning point was the catastrophic losses suffered by the elite Nahal Brigade during repeated assaults in Beit Hanoun.

Resistance fighters turned the town into a deathtrap for Israeli troops, exposing flaws in Israel’s military strategy. Similar setbacks occurred in other areas, including Rafah and Jabalia, where resistance forces executed deadly ambushes.

These failures have sparked widespread criticism within the occupation state.

Military analysts and journalists have described Gaza as “Israel’s Vietnam,” highlighting the daily toll on soldiers and the inability to achieve decisive victories.

Public discontent has grown, with many Israelis losing faith in Netanyahu’s leadership after 15 months of war. Families of Israeli prisoners have also pressured the government to bring their loved ones home, adding to the prime minister’s woes.

The Current State of the Negotiations

According to reports, the proposed deal includes a phased prisoner exchange. Israel would pledge not to resume fighting, while Hamas would release remaining Israeli prisoners in stages. US officials have described the proposal as reasonable and beneficial to all parties.

However, some members of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, oppose the deal. They argue it rewards Hamas and undermines Israel’s security. Netanyahu must navigate this internal dissent while maintaining US support.

Why Netanyahu Is Backing Down

Analysts agree that Netanyahu’s decision is a calculated move to preserve his political survival. Trump’s influence is key, with Jabbarin noting that the US president-elect has significant leverage. “Netanyahu won’t risk his broader political ambitions—including relations with Saudi Arabia and plans against Iran—for the sake of continuing the Gaza war,” he explained.

Resistance forces have also made it impossible for Netanyahu to claim victory.

Their ability to sustain military operations and inflict damage on Israeli troops has shattered the illusion of an easy win. As Netanyahu faces mounting criticism at home and abroad, he appears to have concluded that a ceasefire and prisoner exchange are his best options.