What Do Israel’s Threats Against Iran, Gaza and Lebanon Say About Its Strength?

The Israeli military’s Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, threatened Iran with offensive actions as US President Joe Biden is expected to attempt to re-enter the Iran Nuclear deal, but what do the Israeli threats say about the strength of Israel in the region?

The Israeli military’s Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi announced this Tuesday, at a virtual INSS meeting, that he had ordered new military plans, which will allegedly be developed, in order to combat Iran. Kochavi claims that these new plans come as a result of Iran being “months, maybe even weeks” away from a nuclear weapon, an allegation denied by Tehran and not confirmed by any leading organisation on the issue.

Mahmoud Vaezi, the Iranian President’s Chief of Staff, immediately slapped down Kochavi’s remarks labelling them as psychological warfare. Vaezi said that “in action, they neither have a plan nor the ability to carry it out”, not taking Israel seriously. Iran also vows a harsh response to Israel if they carry out any attacks and have taken this as an opportunity to communicate to the Israeli’s that they have not yet witnessed the full extent of Iran’s military power.

Although seemingly unlikely it will happen to Iran, it is still possible that Israel may attempt an attack at some point. Israel has historically gone after Nuclear sites in Syria in 2007 and Iraq in 1981, also having allegedly assassinated four Iranian scientists between 2010-2012, later murdering Iran’s top Nuclear Scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, late last year.

Many analysts have also weighed in to speculate upon whether Israel is serious about its plans to attack Iran and whether the strikes would be effective. However, it is unlikely that this speech was actually meant primarily for Iran, but rather the US Biden administration. The role of military figures is not usually to critique the foreign policy of allies, however, this event was timed around a crucial issue of importance to Israel, the Iran Nuclear Deal.

It looks likely that the Joe Biden administration will make strides towards closing back in on the JCPOA or Iran Nuclear Deal. The issue not having been dropped from the Biden agenda by this point may indicate that Israeli Lobbying efforts behind the scenes have been largely unsuccessful.

Biden’s newly sworn in Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, had stated during the recent Senate Confirmation Hearing, that the deal won’t be re-entered soon and that once back in the deal they will hope to get concessions from Iran. The concessions that Israel demands that the US get, if they re-enter the deal, are that Iran give up its missile programs and aid to its allies.

At this point, Israel is seemingly attempting to squeeze all it can out of the United States and attempt to apply its own maximum pressure, in order to get the US to continue its anti-Iran ‘Maximum Pressure [Sanctions] campaign’.

Out of further frustration, Kochavi also proclaimed in his speech, that in the following wars with either Gaza or Lebanon, Israel will strike even residential buildings and densely populated civilian areas. Although this is a policy which Israel has already employed in the past and no new thing for Palestinian or Lebanese civilians, it is interesting to hear them pre-announce warcrimes.

The Israeli military’s chief of staff seemed uneasy, many said, as he made daring threats against its regional neighbours and their civilian populations. Kochavi stated that both Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip had developed greater weapons capabilities and that greater measures would be taken now in order for Israel’s security.

If these were statements from a single Israeli General, they shouldn’t be taken too seriously, but these positions are also shared by Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, making for these ideas more cement and stick more in Washington.

However, despite whether Israel is to receive immediate US backing for their position on the Iran Nuclear Deal, it’s now clear that Israel has lost its infamous “deterrence capacity” and openly states that it does not have the capacity to win on the battlefield. What also shows this, is its top ranking agenda of weakening Iran and hence stifling support to both Hezbollah and Hamas. This Saturday it was reported that the first senior Israeli figure to visit the White House would be the Head of the Mossad, Yossi Cohen, who is to lay down Israel’s demands to the Biden administration.

Israel once reigned supreme as a military power in the Middle East, but now it operates from a distance and is unable to succeed militarily on the ground against its adversaries. The only way it can pull off victories now, is through its advanced technology, fearing any real confrontation with any group that is in a position to fight back. It’s only current option is to hide at a distance and not take any chances at decisive victory and to attack overwhelmingly civilians.