Washington (QNN)- Just minutes before Trump posted about a five-day suspension of attacks on Iranian power plants, markets experienced unusual activity: roughly $1.5 billion was suddenly invested in S&P 500 futures, while about $200 million worth of oil contracts were sold. The trader behind these moves reportedly earned around $50 million in just a few minutes.
Financial markets were thrown into turmoil on Monday after a series of unusually well‑timed trades netted about $50 million in profits just minutes before Trump announced a temporary pause on US attacks targeting Iran’s infrastructure, igniting suspicions of insider information leaking ahead of the statement.
At approximately 7:24 a.m. Eastern Time, Trump posted on social media that he was ordering a five‑day suspension of planned strikes on Iranian power plants, claiming that “detailed and constructive talks” were underway between US and Iranian officials.
The remark, which was not preceded by any formal press briefing, instantly jostled financial markets: major US stock indexes surged more than 2 percent, while oil prices dropped sharply.
But minutes before the announcement, trading data showed large positions being opened in equity futures and energy markets. According to market watchers, someone bought roughly $1.5 billion worth of S&P 500 futures and sold about $200 million in oil contracts moments before Trump’s tweet.
When asset prices moved in the anticipated direction after the announcement, those pre‑positioned trades reportedly generated about $50 million in profit within a very short period.
The timing of the trades has triggered questions from analysts and regulators. Concerns center on whether someone may have had access to non‑public information ahead of the public post.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other watchdogs are preparing to examine trading records to determine whether there was any illegal leakage or insider advantage.
Some veterans of the trading world noted similarities with past episodes where geo‑political tweets seemed to precede outsized market reactions.
https://x.com/chrismurphyct/status/2036277990489764135?s=46&t=t_-JFgpXqgMIkVsuBfWELw
Recently, Polymarket has come under attack for a big bet placed on the US attack on Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. One gambler netted more than $400,000 betting on the operation hours before it occurred. One user also correctly predicted that the US would strike Iran on February 28. The user named Magamyman made a gross profit of some $430,000 by successfully predicting the start of the assault on Iran.
There has long been suspicion that political or military actors are using such platforms to profit from decisions they are aware of.
Chris Murphy, a US senator from Connecticut, wrote that "it’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
However, several reports pointed out that Donald Trump's family has deep ties to Polymarket.
Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, is an adviser to the US betting platform, and his venture capital firm has invested millions in it over the years.
The Trump administration has also dropped two investigations into Polymarket that were opened by the Joe Biden administration.
Source: Financial Times, Yahoo News, Vox News, Channel 12, NPR
