Israeli leaders have not made a final decision, but signs point to advanced planning. Military movements, intercepted communications, and completed air exercises suggest Israel is weighing a bold move, despite ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations.
The timing raises alarm in Washington. US President Donald Trump is still pursuing a nuclear deal with Iran. A unilateral Israeli strike could sabotage diplomatic efforts and ignite a broader conflict, US officials warned.
One intelligence source said, “The chances of an Israeli strike have increased significantly in recent months.” Another added, “A bad deal with Iran will push Israel to act alone.”
The US intelligence community has tracked Israel’s shifting strategy. Recent observations include the relocation of air munitions and military drills tailored for long-range missions. Yet, some officials argue these could be pressure tactics rather than indicators of imminent action. Despite the tension, the Trump administration remains focused on diplomacy.
White House officials are divided. Some believe Israel could act soon. Others think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won’t risk the US-Israel alliance without at least quiet approval from Washington.
“It’s a tough position for Netanyahu,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior US intelligence official. “He’s trying to stop a bad deal without alienating Trump.”
Israel lacks the capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program on its own. Experts say it would need American support, especially for midair refueling and advanced bunker-busting bombs. But US sources say that kind of support is unlikely unless Iran provokes a major incident.
Israel fears the Trump administration might accept a nuclear agreement that doesn’t ban all uranium enrichment. Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium for civilian energy, under the U.N. Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation. The US refuses that.
“Our position is zero enrichment,” said US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff. “We’ve made that clear in our proposal.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded on Tuesday, calling the US demand a “big mistake.”
