Palestine 2024: A new reality emerging in the region

By Dr. Abdullah Al-Aqrabawi

The Palestinian issue enters 2024 under exceptional and unprecedented circumstances in decades, with the war on Gaza–that has been raging since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas on October 7–dominating the scene.

The current confrontation is the fiercest faced by the Palestinian resistance in Gaza since Hamas took control of the territory in the summer of 2007. Beyond being the broadest and most comprehensive war, the repercussions of this confrontation will shape a new reality for the Palestinian cause, Gaza, influence the Israeli reality, impact internal Palestinian politics, and impose itself on the regional and international environment.

A new phase
October 7 marked a turning point in the behavior of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza, initiating an organized and widespread attack covering the Gaza border settlements.

The attack targeted Israeli military, security, intelligence sites, and settlements, leading to the collapse of the Gaza Division of the Israeli occupation army.

With this attack, the resistance concluded a phase of Israeli attempts to contain it and coexist with its presence in Gaza. Since the Sword of Jerusalem battle in May 2021, the resistance set a new and escalating course to confront Israeli violations in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza.

On the other hand, Israel’s declaration of war marked a departure from its previous strategy in dealing with Gaza, avoiding a broad and comprehensive confrontation, including a wide ground invasion. Israel defined its war goals as eliminating Hamas, dismantling its military capabilities, and recovering Israeli prisoners held by the resistance.

Nearly three months into the comprehensive war on Gaza, despite the immense destruction inflicted by Israel and the complete destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure, the Palestinian resistance continues its armed clashes with the Israeli occupation army across the besieged territory.

Unattainable goals
Concerning the goal of eliminating Hamas and dismantling its capabilities, the developments on the battlefield raise significant doubts about Israel’s ability to achieve its objective due to the nature and deep-rooted presence of Hamas in the Palestinian context and particularly in Gaza, which it has controlled for 17 years.

Israel lacks clear criteria to measure achieving this goal, requiring a long-term security and military control in Gaza, which experts and analysts, including Israelis, doubt its feasibility. Hamas’s ability to continue executing quality operations against the Israeli army invading Gaza, evidenced by visual footage, indicates the dilemma Israel is facing in achieving this goal or enduring the consequences of a prolonged attrition war in the Strip.

The file of recovering prisoners faces another challenge after Hamas announced its refusal of an exchange deal before a ceasefire and full withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Strip. The Israeli occupation army has already carried out special operations to free prisoners in Gaza but to no avail, incurring losses among soldiers and the intended captives.

The day after the war
The day after the war, anticipated for months, poses another challenge for Israel and its supporters in Washington. Proposed ideas to address this dilemma have little chance of practical application due to the complexity of the scene in Gaza and the Palestinian and Israeli political environment.

As for suggesting the deployment of UN peacekeeping forces, rapid intervention forces, Arab police forces, or multinational forces to maintain stability or govern Gaza or even guard it, these are all theories difficult to implement.

Israel might find itself entangled in Gaza with no one to rescue it. Therefore, if Israel refuses to withdraw from Gaza, the only other option is to remain as an occupying force. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated a preference for this, hoping to prevent Hamas from declaring victory or regaining control.

It won’t be easy for Israel to opt for this choice. The Palestinian resistance can maintain its ability to continue fighting in open urban warfare at a low cost, especially in urban areas where the resistance enjoys widespread popular support.

The absence of a realistic and applicable vision for the day after the war and Israel’s inability to reoccupy the Strip and endure a protracted attrition war will force it to withdraw, but after destroying and reimposing the blockade on Gaza. This will leave Palestinians with the option to continue resistance, imposing new realities that restore Hamas’s position.